FIDONEWS: Ежегодная статистка по IPv6-узлам

Vladimir Fyodorov написал(а) к All в Dec 19 18:28:02 по местному времени:


> Michiel van der Vlist собрал и опубликовал статистику по количеству
> IPv6-узлов в Фидо как в целом, так и с разбивкой по регионам и зонам.
> Общее количество таких узлов увеличивается ежегодно, и за последний год
> возросло с 78 до 86 (почти 10% от общего количества нод).

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* Area : FIDONEWS
* From : FidoNews Robot, 2:2/2 (30 Декабря 2019 01:31)
* Subj : FidoNews 36:52 [01/07]: General Articles
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GENERAL ARTICLES
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IPv6 in 2019
By Michiel van der Vlist, 2:280/5555


Another year has passed. When we compare the statistics as published
by the end of 2018 with those of today, we see that IPv6 in Fidonet
has grown again. From 78 to 86 nodes.


90 _|
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80 _| .
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70 _| .
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60 _|
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50 _|
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40 _| .
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30 _|
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20 _|
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10 _| .
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0 |________.__________________________________________________
| | | | | | | | | | |
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Not just another year has passed, but also another decade. (Except
for the nitpckers that insist the decade runs from 2011-2021.)

When we look at the past decade we see that IPv6 in Fidonet grew
from zero to almost a hundred . Nearly 10% of the listed Fido nodes.
The growth went from exponential in the first five years to almost
lineair since 2015. Until the end of 2015, the number almost doubled
every year. In 2016 we had a mere net increase of 12 nodes. I say
"net" because in 2016, not only did we see new IPv6 nodes, we also
saw nodes disappear from the list. Some stopped supporting IPv6, some
left Fidonet altogether. This trend continued in 2017, 2018 and 2019.
A net increase of 13 nodes in 2017, 14 in 2018 and 8 in 2019.

Statistics on small numbers is alway tricky, but we can not deny
the impression that sinds last year the rate of inrease appears to
be dropping. In the first half of 2019 the number even dropped to 71
because several IPv6 nodes left Fidonet. At the end it reached 86.

Other than that, 2019 was not all that eventfull regarding IPv6. Not
for Fidonet en not for the Internet in general. We saw steady growth
but we can't say that IPv6 is the dominant protocol yet. Two things
are worth mentioning:

What we have been expecting for some time, but did not see before is
a Fidonet system that no longer has a public IPv4 address because
his provider gave him a DS-Lite connection. Node 2:5020/2038 could
not accept incoming IPv4 calls for some month. Incoming was IPv6
only. Later he moved his node from his home to his office where he
now is on an IPv4 only connection.

Several mobile providers in Europe have started to roll out IPv6 or
have announced that they will do so in the coming year. The mobile
providers will not use DS-Lite, but the effect will be the same.
The user will have a block of IPv6 addresses and an IPv4 address in
the RFC 1918 or RFC 6598 range. That the mobile users will not have
a public IPv4 address is no big deal for them, most of them had to
make do with CGNAT for many years already. The mobile network is
IPv6 only. To access IPv4 only servers they will make use of NAT64.
One of the reasons that the mobile providers waited so long is that
they had to wait for older versions of Android and iOS that do not
support NAT64 to fade out. (Or so they claim). Anyway, mobile IPv6
may be the game changer that makes IPv6 the dominant protocol.


Some more statistics.

Let us take a look at IPv6 by Regions and Zones:


Region # nodes # IPv6 % IPv6


R10 24 4 4 %
R11 57 3 5 %
R12 19 0 0 %
R13 61 0 0 %
R14 17 2 12 %
R15 38 0 0 %
R16 9 1 11 %
R17 37 1 3 %
R18 36 4 11 %
R19 58 2 3 %
R20 18 5 28 %
R24 79 7 9 %
R25 8 1 12 %
R28 9 6 67 %
R29 6 1 16 %
R31 3 1 33 %
R33 4 2 50 %
R34 5 0 0 %
R40 4 0 0 %
R41 2 0 0 %
R42 10 3 30 %
R45 6 1 16 %
R46 105 6 6 %
R48 8 0 0 %
R50 320 30 9 %
R54 18 4 22 %
R56 7 0 0 %
R57 7 1 14 %
R80 13 0 0 %
R88 1 0 0 %
R90 6 1 16 %

Z1 356 17 5 %
Z2 594 63 12 %
Z3 26 5 25 %
Z4 20 1 5 %

Fido 996 86 9 %


There is no denying that some regions are doing better than others.
Keep in mind however that statistics on small numbers is tricky.


Sorted by decreasing percentage:


Region # nodes # Ipv6 % IPv6


R28 9 6 67 %
R33 4 2 50 %
R31 3 1 33 %
R42 10 3 30 %
R20 18 5 28 %
R54 18 4 22 %
R45 6 1 16 %
R90 6 1 16 %
R29 6 1 16 %
R57 7 1 14 %
R14 17 2 12 %
R25 8 1 12 %
R18 36 4 11 %
R16 9 1 11 %
R50 329 30 9 %
R24 79 7 9 %
R46 105 6 6 %
R11 57 3 5 %
R10 24 4 4 %
R19 58 2 3 %
R17 37 1 3 %
R13 61 0 0 %
R15 38 0 0 %
R12 19 0 0 %
R80 13 0 0 %
R48 8 0 0 %
R56 7 0 0 %
R34 5 0 0 %
R40 4 0 0 %
R41 2 0 0 %
R88 1 0 0 %

Z3 26 5 25 %
Z2 594 63 12 %
Z1 356 17 5 %
Z4 20 1 5 %

Fido 996 86 9 %


This makes it even more clear that some do better than others. ;-)


IPv4 address exhaustion not only makes IPv6 unavoidable, it also
makes it unavoidable that at least part of the internet community
will have to make do with a DS-Lite connection and so no longer has
a public IPv4 address. The trend that providers, mostly in Europe
and Australasia, are switching to DS-lite continues. Some providers
only put new customers on DS-Lite and allow existing customers to
keep their public IPv4 address, others move existing customers to
DS-Lite as well. It has not affected Fidonet yet, but I expect that
to be a matter of time. DS-Lite is unavoidable and it will affect
Fidonet. If not next year, then surely in the years to come.

Fidonet will survive the exhaustion of IPv4 addresses. But only for
those that move to IPv6. Unfortunately like in the Big Bad World
there are people that are in denial regarding global warming, there
is a non negligible fraction of Fidonet sysops that are in denial
regarding IPv6. They seem to think that it is just a conspiracy to
extract more money from the cutomers, a hoax or a hype that will
blow over.

Well, it ain't. IPv4 address exhaustion is real and IPv6 is
unavoidable. Those that remain in denial will eventually be left
behind. It may take a while, maybe another decade, but running a
Fidonet node on an IPv4 only connection will eventually lead to
isolation. IPv6 is a must, not an option.


In order not to have to tell the same story over and over again, I
sometimes refer people to Fidonews articles I wrote in the past.
Since there seems to be no easely available searcheable archive, I
made a list of these articles. I hope I did not miss any.

My previous Fidonews articles about IPv6:


FN 26:31 Jul 2009 FidoNet and IPv6
FN 28:04 Jan 2011 FidoNet and IPv4 depletion
FN 28:07 Feb 2011 Fido and IPv6 Day
FN 28:16 Apr 2011 APNIC runs out
FN 28:20 May 2011 The IPv6 echo
FN 28:31 Aug 2011 A SECOND LIFE FOR TНE LINKSYS Part 1
FN 28:32 Aug 2011 A SECOND LIFE FOR TНE LINKSYS PArt 2
FN 28:45 Nov 2011 A "first"
FN 29:04 Jan 2012 World IPv6 Launch Day, 6 June 2012
FN 29:09 Feb 2012 A SECOND LIFE FOR TНE LINKSYS Part 3
FN 29:38 Sep 2012 RIPE is out of IPv4 addresses.
FN 32:17 Apr 2015 IPv6 penetration in the nodelist
FN 32:26 Jun 2015 ARIN is out of IPv4 addresses.
FN 3:252 Dec 2015 IPv6 in Fidonet by the end of 2015
FN 33:02 Jan 2016 IPv6 in two thousand SIX teen
FN 33:06 Feb 2016 Another barrier broken.
FN 34:01 Jan 2017 IPv6 in 2016
FN 34:13 Mar 2017 SixXs Sunset 06-06-2017
FN 34:30 Jul 2017 TV without IPv6
FN 34:31 Jul 2017 DS-Lite emulation experiment v2.0
FN 34:37 Sep 2017 DS-Lite emulation experiment 2.0, the results
FN 34:33 Aug 2017 DS-Lite: a solution
FN 34:38 Sep 2017 DS-Lite Emulation experiment v2.1
FN 35:01 Jan 2018 IPv6 in 2017
FN 35:53 Dec 2018 IPv6 in 2018


Нappy IPv6 in 2020.
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